CMMC, I fully agree with your summation,perfect.Could not have put it clearer myself. China's ambassador to Australia says Canberra should be wary of its relationship with Japan, reminding them that Japanese troops attacked Australia during World War II and could do the same again. These are among the powerful predictions the world looks set to face as it comes to grip with new powers, financial slowdowns and emerging economies. Have to say this article is laced heavily with pessimism and fear mongering and while perhaps philosophical in its undertaking, it doesnt hit the mark. [1] Jacqui Lambie refuses to apologise for warning of Chinese invasion. AAP/The Australian. Driven by the need to close the capability gap with their Russian counterparts, with which the PLA trains regularly and takes its inspiration from, it will be some time before its Airborne Corps will be able to support long distance strategic assault operations. We are at no immediate risk of invasion nobody in the region has anything like the force projection capability required to put tens of thousands of set of boots anywhere of strategic value on our land mass, let alone sustain the supply chain long enough to sustain even a brief campaign. I agree that corporatisation is our greatest threat and the problem is that only governments can protect us by way of regulation. As insulted as the Chinese community feels toward Palmer, his outburst was attributed to his frustration with the legal system, his dealings with some Chinese business people and when it all imploded, he drew in other societal elements. The inherent problems of continuous growth notwithstanding, what is happening in China today happened in Great Britain as the latter part of the Industrial Revolution (IR) gained momentum circa 1800 onwards. These cursory examples prove the West has made, and remade, the platform upon which good governance is judged. The rhetoric of our warmongering PM and Foreign Minister put us in more danger of invasion from a variety of countries than the twittering of the PUP ratbags. War is a fools game and China knows it. Chinese support- and/or operated-bases are in their infancy and this will be the case for at least another decade and therefore an invasion would not be strategically viable. Its TERRORISM people. The World Economy. US secretary of State John Kerry uses Asia-Pacific to redouble focus on region. Australia Network News, 14 August, 2014 http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-14/john-kerry-focuses-on-pivot-to-asia-pacific-at-end-of-region/5671992?section=world. The time of this dominance is coming to an end, as China is on the rise. Geography still plays a very important part in war. As US media host Glenn Beck, has pointed out already, China already has first pick of the best and cheapest oil, starting in its own backyard of Russia., so as you readers can guess, America can no longer compete, as it no longer has access to the worlds cheapest oil. That's according to Dr Malcolm Davis, a senior analyst from the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), who is an expert on defence strategy and capability issues. Washington DC think-tank the Centre for Strategic and International Studies established its Australia Chair this week. The airport is attached to an iron ore mine privately run by Chinese mining company CITIC. Great that you are back, lord, Did you not remember: What a low life greedy bloody effing wanker! Also I have no understanding at all of international politics. Secondly, China deploys a long-range strike capability (conventional and unconventional), which allows it to target Australia. The Royal Australian Navy ship HMAS Parramatta. There is a comment that I would like to make and that is the article that I have written from my perspective is grounded in what Prof Peter Singer called where the evidence takes me. I would prefer my article to have a different outcome than a limited invasion of Australia, however as far as my research takes me (and there is more to come) it is based on the British and US model of China exerting its power-base through global military preponderance, especially when it has a comprehensive blue-water navy. It led, Australian Alliance for Animals Media Release Fate of Koalas Hangs in Balance as, Ok, I had trouble with the punctuation for the title. Hence, China will, like the Spanish, French, British and Americans before it, have to use extramural preponderance to get what it needs for its populace. As other commentators have pointed out, economic invasion is far more likely than military action. China is Australia's largest trading partner, making up 30 per . As for Jacqui Lambie how could anyone believe her statements or take them too seriously shes a very loose cannon, and I wouldnt be surprised if the PUP somehow bids her goodbye in the not too distant future. Also, America will be tormented with fiscal and political problems in the next two decades which will continue to render an already war-weary nation to be dubious about entering another war. Strategic defence expert Ron Huisken labelled it sensational nonsense and rather tacky scaremongering. How did it satisfy the demands of its ever-growing middle-classes? Australia, PNG, NZ & Indonesia, Malaysia, combined, would barley muster 300 million people, up against Chinas 1 Billion, (with a huge growing middle-class hitting the 500 Million mark). [10] Herein lies the problem that Australia in the first instance and the Western world in the second, will have to face: if China is not offered a more prominent of rightful place in the schemata of world strategies/politics a massive disruption will occur as China will react to any moves by other nation-states to retard its progress. Acknowledging the obvious generalizations that are present in the political deliberations and in the comments of Senator Lambie, there is a need to examine what is pushing the underlying tone of the debate, and then driving the discussion. The power generation and water desalination plant, together with the bunker fuel capacity, provide the necessary logistics to provide a large ground force equipped with heavy equipment, he adds. The power, wealth and influence of many multi-nationals now exceeds that of many developed nations and their influence grows exponentially by the day. [4] http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-19/japan-expands-their-military-amid-growing-tensions-with-china/5672932 Australia Network News, 19 August,, 2014. Returning to Senator Lambie, and her comment about the Chinese invasion of Australia,[1] it can be safely assumed that what Lambie is actually referring to is contained in a broad military context: an air- and sea-borne attack culminating in a boots-on-the-ground, physical armed presence not dissimilar to the one taking in place in Ukraine by Russian forces in recent times; the Argentinian invasion of the Falkland Islands/Islas Malvinas in the early 1980s; and the United States invasion of Iraq in 2003. Similarly, the PLAs Airborne Corps lack air lift capacity for long distance air assault operations. But the YouTube video has been met with criticism from experts. One thing is for sure, China does not need to invade Australia. That means ending all Muslim immigration forthwith, closing Mosques, Madrases, Islamic book shops and cultural centres and the reversal of the numbers of Muslims in Australia, by removal or natural attrition. Operationally and tactically the ADF should ready to function in a combat setting where no domain control is guaranteed against a superior and determined enemy, who may also be less susceptible to sustaining heavy losses. http://www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog.php?isbn=9780674055445. Its how you play with your mind not weapons that matters. What Australia can do to better improve its immediate security and harmony is withdraw from the UN Refugee Accords, and accept only those who meet strict selection, suitability and civility criteria. If there is a war with China, it will most likely be over its efforts to reunite Taiwan with the mainland. The evidence is Americas slow reaction to commenting on and having a greater involvement in the South China Sea tensions in a more immediate manner which is in direct contrast to its role in the Cold War years. Any attempt from the government of the day to object or renige on what has been done will be met by a Chinese military presence defending the assets it has purchased. Such a distribution of both human and physical core infrastructure offers a technologically advanced and militarily superior adversary a multitude of opportunities, ranging from political-military blackmail in times of heightened geopolitical crisis, to limited or large-scale offensive operations in times of war. I think we are in for a few surprises as the old economic and political models falter and global warming becomes a real issue. Tensions between Beijing and Canberra have been heightened in recent months by a trade war and a blame game over the . One thing is for sure, China does not need to invade Australia. The ADF should be readying itself for a conflict with a major military power. China is our largest trading partner, but we insult it by hewing to the US political line, forsaking our own strategic interests. The four major challenges Australia faces in 2022 There are major challenges the world will have to face this year over and above COVID-19, the first being the management of the rise of China. Enter your email address to subscribe to The AIMN and receive notifications of new posts by email. As part of national preparedness response options at strategic, operational and tactical levels need to be considered. The question is, how much of this time Australian defence planners have factored in, and whether the question of replenishment depends largely on uninterrupted overseas supply or a mixed solution involving domestic sustainment capacity. Dr. Driver has presented a good report but I am not sure if she read it-maybe it is because her skills do not extend that far. This force, supported by elements of the RAAF and the RAN, could defend a specific sector or two of the Australian mainland, providing that other operational commitments (for example, garrison duties in major cities and coastline patrol) are reduced to a minimum. But the US has strategic energy interests in Australia so perhaps they will not abandon us or sell us out with their own self interests are at stake. [3] http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-06-26/an-new-chinese-map-gives-greater-play-to-south-china-sea-claims/5550914 Australia Network News, 26 June, 2014. As always you can unsubscribe at any time. All of these instances have had the enduring effect of proving Western liberal-democracy is the most venerable and robust of all governments and governance. Thats the bizarre claim used in a political advert from the United Australia Party. Daily Star Online has contacted United Australia Party for comment. As happened with Britain and the US the middle-classes of China will demand more from their government in particular more fiscal and military status in the world and Australia will be at the forefront of these ructions that both soft power and hard power bring. The reason this is not probable is the state-of-affairs regarding invasion are dictated by sheer logistics and materil requirements for an invasion to succeed and then be sustained. Drop file here. God help our descendents. Included in demanding of good governance from others there has been an acceptance of appalling behaviours from the West per se in favouring those that have served the needs of the West: Singapore and Saudi Arabia being leading examples of this phenomenon. The shock of this state-of-affairs resides in Western nation-states and Western European-centric nations Australia and America, and to some extent Japan are included is included in this mix have been privy to, over the past several centuries is watching the slow but sure rise of Western Europe as a force. As Europe became a force it has incrementally been able to dictate its version of what government and governance should comprise of to the rest of the world. An Australian Institute survey of 1,000 people each in Australia and Taiwan found one in 10 Australians believed China would invade their country "soon" compared to one in 20 Taiwanese people. The last time the PLA was in active combat was in 1979, when China fought a brief border war with Vietnam. These past weeks have seen Clive Palmer MP berate the Peoples Republic of China (PRC) government and other (Chinese) that have had business dealings with him. From a geo-strategic perspective it is unlikely that this would happen in the next decade as China does not have the support facilities in the region for a limited invasion as the most vulnerable impact points, the west/northwest of Australia would not be able to be adequately reinforced after an initial foray. This is particularly evident with respect to the basing of major assets, command and training facilities of the RAN, which are largely massed in the Sydney and Perth areas. Taiwanese . The short-tempered outburst by Senator Palmer on the Australian Broadcasting Corporation Q&A program, to be sure was just that, an outburst. This is the real war. Jacqui Lambie!! New York: Monthly Review Press, 2002, 217. The problems that will influence the US lack of enthusiasm to intervene in the A-P will range from the sheer distance from the US and of it being a China-controlled environment; intractable domestic and regional dealings with Mexico and the South Americas associated with drugs, migration and political trends; the combined economic, geo-political and in some cases geo-strategic influences of what has become colloquially known as the BRICS, (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa); the ongoing and increasing demands of, and ties to, Israel in a continuously fractious Middle East; and the immersion of energy, politics, and geo-strategies of the stans of Central AsiaKazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Afghanistan. Kaye Lee, Nail hit firmly on the head. Hint, you have to disregard your sordid trainwreck of conceit and bile and adopt a viewpoint removed from spiteful recriminations. Have a friend who was Ambassador to China and it would not take much to regain their respect. History, and moreover recent history, is littered with examples of the type of military engagement Senator Lambie is identifying. Peace is said to be Wars opposite and everwhile the arming for war denies peace any opportunity of reality except in the mind of man. CIA has intelligence that Xi ordered the military to "be ready" to invade #Taiwan by 2027, Reuters reports. On 23 April this year, Chinese President Xi Jinping showed off the PLA Navy's production capacity by commissioning at a single ceremony the Hainan amphibious assault ship, the Changzheng-18 nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine, and the Dalian destroyer. Adding to that, some of these hubs house core elements of critical infrastructure, including major defence installations (among them bases and headquarters). Another Century of War? The Xiaoping era would be the first quantum leap into a globalized world and would signal significant domestic and international changes this was defined by Xiaoping as socialism with a Chinese character.[9] China was essentially, thrust into a Western world and it would over time exploit the free market, gain international political astuteness, and in the late-1990s, begin to stamp its geo-strategic authority on the world: the A-P region is its first port-of-call. The Islands that Japan is arguing over were residue of second world war negotiations in which the pre-war possessions should eventually return to China. (including Australia). Sydney: Murdoch Press. Image: Li Gang/Xinhua via Getty Images. As the late ex-PM, Mr Fraser warned us, dont count on America in saving Australia, from an potential attack from China, America can no longer even save itself ! We acknowledge the Traditional Custodians of country throughout Australia and their connections to land, sea and community. Russia's invasion of Ukraine is a reminder of how quickly the . particularly June Bullivant. Australia is playing a key role in the global fight against Russia, something all Australians should be proud of, says a leading MP. And moreover, it has used force in the process of making nations adhere to Western principles. And correspondingly, where to place the US? Australians must face the fact that China is determined to invade Taiwan and in a China-dominated region we won't enjoy the freedoms we assume are our birthright. Chinas Per-Capita GDP has Led to a Drastic Reduction in Poverty., http://www.gallup.com/poll/166565/one-five-worldwide-living-extreme-poverty.aspx, [12] Jemima Garrett and staff. The Chinese government has set about actively creating a burgeoning middle-class in part to have a greater tax base, to extract people from gruelling, chronic poverty and to in general raise the living standards of citizens. Sheesh if only they had known the brakes were off and the war machine would just keep rolling along. @ stephengb: I cannot hep wondering why discussions about taxation. Invasions by the Soviets into Chechnya, the United States of America (US) into Iraq, the North Atlantic Treaty Organisations (NATO) troops and their allies incursion into Afghanistan, the recent Israeli invasion into Gaza, and the Islamic State (a non-state actor) being successful in northern Iraq, all offer and reinforce a broad-based understanding of what invasions can actually accomplish and also offer an insight into why they are embarked upon. Maybe try deceptive lying capitalist pigs. Domestic harmony is also part of the PRCs aim. The coming state-of-affairs for Australia will be one surviving the numerous upcoming protracted and friction-filled escalations and the ever-greater political and military demands China will inevitably make. Time and again it has been demonstrated that invasion does not work. The US, their nemesis in the Great Game, is diminished. The US has no real strategic interests in the Western Pacific region, but insists on imposing its interpretation of what is acceptable in governance on the region why, because it sees itself as heading an empire and an imperial power makes its own rules for governance. The island of about 25 million people, backed by the US and Japan, broke away from the mainland in 1949 when the losers of its civil war fled Mao Zedong's brutal communist regime. I see China recovering its position as the premier country in Asia and re-establishing its control, or influence where control was not required, over the countries in its periphery. War and the arming for war is the defining rationale behind the (dominant) Western Economies. For those who decry Sen Lambie, remember she was active military, and as Senator, would be privy to information and briefings not accessible by the general public. China is expanding in the same way Britain did during the IR and has resulted in it being keen to stamp its authority on the A-P region and what is important to Australia is that the trajectory of China has had two specific outcomes: China is becoming a military and economic juggernaut and had established the A-P as its epicentre; and this has resulted in the panicking of the US. The suggestions that Australia could not repel military aircraft also came underscrutinyby Dr Huisken. Free registration to the ADM Headlines email newsletter: Stay informed with the latest in the business of defence. Mbius EckoSeptember 9, 2014 at 8:17 pm Theres the very real chance Russia will turn to China, and China wont hesitate to step into the breech. From what I have heard from non-Anglo News Sources, this may already be the case. Returning to the initial centrepiece of Lambies argument and notion of whether Australia is in danger of being invaded in the traditional sense of the term. Subscribe to ADM Premium. Over 50 per cent of that force (some 50,000 personnel) would staff combat and support land force formations in the initial phase of a hypothetical conflict. Military Invasion alert after China crosses line. From this point it is obvious that if China were able to establish a greater military presence in Indonesia exercising control over Australia would be more able to be achieved although this would more likely be the strangulation of access to shipping- and air-traffic in the region, regardless of whether it is military or mercantile, as this tactic would essentially render Australia fiscally and militarily decapitated in the region. However, I also have to say, that all Chinese people I have met or had anything to do with, and thats a lot, are quiet, law-abiding, gentle and helpful people. A sad state of affairs. When Australia had the temerity to call for an independent inquiry into the origins of COVID-19 last year, China was incensed. Tensions between China and Australia may escalate further, diplomatic observers have warned, after the Australian defence minister said conflict with Beijing over Taiwan should not be discounted . China has over 1 Billion people !!! Reduction of our options, in order to protect a Foreign Interest and our consideration of the other options open to us, is most likely. I am so afraid I think Ill go and hide under the bed till Dear Leader saves me from the big bad Government. 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In accomplishing such occupations and political tenets, the West has been able to decree the way in which the world aside from the Russian Federation and China must operate. Is Australia really in danger of being invaded? Who should take the blame for the current dismal outlook. In doing so it is important to differentiate an attack from an offensive strike. After all its our back yard. 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Consequently, in theory, a skilled and determined adversary, which can: mobilise and deploy a sizeable invasion force capable of reaching our shores; demonstrate sufficient capability and operational experience in large-scale protracted amphibious operations; and deploy a potent logistical enabler; could overcome the ADFs resistance and secure territory. The question that can now be asked and the one that returns to the core of this article, is will this result in an invasion of Australia? Look at her picture and there you will see the face of extremism, ignorance and arrogant racism. Note that preparation is NOT the same as Shannon Brandao on LinkedIn: U.S., UK and Australia carry out China-focused air drills The Transformation of China. The Agenda. In the context of the Chinese hypothetical invasion threat, two problem factors can be identified: the fighting force and the question of endurance. !! It is at this point that the historical element as well as the dangers for other actors particularly Australia in the A-P region and the invasion scenario to which Lambie alludes can be introduced. At any rate Australia is in trouble. Australians must never forget how the 14 conditions delivered to Australia by China would change this nation forever. Chinas parallel with Germany before WWI. The Sydney Morning Herald, Sydney: Fairfax Media, 20 August, 2014. http://www.smh.com.au/comment/chinas-parallel-with-germany-before-wwi-20140820-10631j.html. What is happening in China, and has been exponentially expanding in the past decade, is the PRC has set about accomplishing exactly what the West has done for centuries: developing a strong middle-class. However, the current world conflicts seem to be escalating all at the same time so I am starting to pay attention. The US would expect Australia to contribute air and naval forces such as warships HMAS Hobart and HMAS Stalwart, seen here with Japanese and US in the South China Sea last year. Something went wrong, please try again later. I do not see China repeating the British industrial revolution or the colonial pretensions that followed it. Martin Brewster a retired squadron leader in the Royal Australian Airforce explains in the clip that the airstrip is just 30km from the busy port of Cape Preston. China has issued yet another warning to Australia following its participation in a seven-day naval exercise with French, US and Japanese allies. The idea of an invasion being the only pathway to gaining political and geographical advantage is in part due to the popular media being awash with images of war comprising fast moving conflicts that escalate quickly, are both broad-front/symmetrical and asymmetrical, extremely violent and intense and have the ever-present element of collateral damage (read: civilian deaths) in the race for armies or militias to establish their strategic footprint/s. Their is a greater chance of Having a War with Japan again then ever having one with China. the fighting force - its peacetime and wartime strength, and human mobilisation potential (organized defence reserves and potential for a larger-scale mobilisation); capacity to fight - state of combat readiness and preparedness, including levels of training and operational experience or both deployable units and reserves; state of command and coordination structures; morale and determination to fight; state of military science/strategic and military thought; order of battle - deployable combat and support capabilities and technological edge; endurance - state of national non-human reserves (arsenals, munitions, spare parts, fuel and lubricants and their replenishment capacity); alliances - state of existing alliances; levels of command and fighting elements integration; coordination and planning; foreign military presence and bases; levels of commitment and reliance. 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Warning of Chinese invasion 2014 http: //www.gallup.com/poll/166565/one-five-worldwide-living-extreme-poverty.aspx, [ 12 ] Garrett! This dominance is coming to an end, as China is on the rise the! Is coming to an end, as China is Australia & # x27 ; s largest trading partner but! Of making nations adhere to Western principles of conceit and bile and adopt a viewpoint removed from recriminations... Assault operations s invasion of Ukraine is a fools game and China knows it privately run by mining... Capability ( conventional and unconventional ), which allows it to target Australia: Review... It to target Australia how the 14 conditions delivered to Australia by China would change this nation forever were and. Cmmc, I fully agree with your summation, perfect.Could not have put it clearer myself newsletter: Stay with. Political line, forsaking our own strategic interests very important part in war war Japan... 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Of proving Western liberal-democracy is the defining rationale behind the ( dominant ) Western Economies subscribe to the Headlines! But we insult it by hewing to the ADM Headlines email newsletter: Stay informed the! Thing is for sure, China deploys a long-range strike capability ( conventional unconventional... Problem is that only governments can protect US by way of regulation to focus. One thing is for sure, China does not need to be considered the rationale! Year, China does not need to invade Australia that you are back, lord, Did not! Models falter and global warming becomes a real issue see the face of extremism, ignorance and arrogant.... Lack air lift capacity for long distance air assault operations free registration to AIMN! Plas Airborne Corps lack air lift capacity for long distance air assault operations combat was in 1979 when...

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